Here on the Vineyard, the fun is over. This week saw the first light frost of the fall. Those who spent their summers in shacks are scuttling inside and sliding down the storm windows. Ocean bathers have become a scarce breed.

And while few have yet reached for the thermostat, there can be no doubt that looming on the horizon, alongside a diabolical financial crisis, is an army of monstrous energy bills.

A short-term forecast released Tuesday by the federal Energy Information Administration confirms what many already suspected: that this will be a long winter.

The report estimates that the average household expenditure for heating fuels will total $1,137 this winter — Oct. 1 to March 31 — a 15 per cent increase over last year. Households heating primarily with heating oil can expect to pay an average of $449 (23 per cent) more, while households using mostly propane can expect to pay an additional $188 or 11 per cent more.

A slightly colder winter is also predicted, down 2.4 per cent in aggregate temperatures on last year.

Fortunately there are myriad measures, many quick and easy, that most people can take to dramatically lower the cost of staying warm.

Vineyard energy experts all point to air sealing as the most effective step toward of home heating efficiency.

Kate Warner, former director of the Vineyard Energy Project, said a good long-term project is conducting a blower door test to determine the air infiltration rate of a building. Several contractors, including Adam Hayes and members South Mountain Inc., use the powerful fan which mounts into the frame of an exterior door, pulling air out of the house, lowering the air pressure inside. The higher outside air pressure then flows in through all unsealed cracks and openings.

It is not necessarily a project for this season, Ms. Warner conceded: “It’s for if you’re thinking long-term and you want to tighten up the house.”

In the shorter term Chris Fried, chairman of the Tisbury Energy Committee and previously a renewable energy specialist for the state of Pennsylvania, offered one constructive idea: strip down to your underwear and stand next to your doors and windows.

On a windy day your skin will pick up any draft he said. Alternatively, if you’re shy, he said, you can use a stick of incense to track the drafts.

“We lose anywhere from 10 to 50 per cent of our heat due to air leakage,” he said.

Once air leaks are found, Mr. Fried recommends caulk or stripping tape as low cost insulators. Window film sealers, though trickier to put up correctly, double as window insulators.

Mr. Fried also advocates rezoning. If you have a dining room area or guest bedroom not in regular use, he said to try to reduce heat in those areas. If your thermostat is zoned then turn it down, or put dampers on the radiator.

If there is no door to these areas, call a carpenter or tack up a curtain. If the thermostat does not have zoning, consider hiring a contractor to modify your system.

David McGlinchey, director of the Vineyard Energy Project, pointed to pipe insulation as another good trick. Wrapping all pipes with insulation available from most hardware stores is something that can be done this weekend, he said. Adding extra storm windows is also cost effective, he added.

Then there is the free energy audit provided by the Cape Light Compact. A total of 214 households were audited in Vineyard towns from Jan. 1 through August 31 of this year, said energy efficiency program manager Kevin Galligan.

The state-funded energy audit provided by the Cape Light Compact is so popular it is currently running a backlog of 10 weeks or more on appointments. To sign up, call 1-800-797-6699.

The auditors provide compact fluorescent light bulbs and perform a range of tests including maximum water temperatures in boilers and refrigerator levels.

They then provide homeowners with a work order and a range of possible rebates for improvements to their home.

Rebates have recently increased — on Oct. 1 the state Department of Public Utilities approved $357,000 in additional funding for Cape Light Compact. Mr. Galligan said the money will be funneled into increased rebates.

He said the principle rebate is up to $2,000 for air ceiling insulation.

He called poor insulation “the main culprit in keeping people from being warm and comfortable over the winter. So when people see Home Depot advertisements for space heaters, plugging more stuff in isn’t necessarily the answer.”

The compact also provides a rebate up to $500 for new high-efficiency oil and propane systems.

Then there is a brand new $100 rebate available for a weather-sensitive heating control, a device which monitors temperature and adjusts the output of boiler systems accordingly.

“It puts a brain on your boiler,” said Mr. Galligan. He said purchase and installation of the devices can range from $300 to $500.

Now may also be a good time for a whole new boiler. Most homes on Martha’s Vineyard are heated using oil or propane. Many homeowners supplement their heat with coal or wood stoves.

Regular wood pellet shortages across the country are testament to the fast growth of the industry. Reports are widespread of shortages on stoves, heating systems and the pellets themselves.

Sharon Strimling Florio, owner of Vineyard Alternative Heating, has sold and installed 250 to 300 wood pellet stoves since her business opened in 2006.

Fortunately, she said she has been able to circumvent the shortages experienced by off-Island consumers with a solid connection: her brother, John, is CEO of pelletsales.com, a biomass distribution company.

According to his Web site, a ton of pellets at $299 is like paying $2.53 for a gallon of fuel oil.

Ms. Strimling was a disaffected environmentalist from her college days when her brother’s work got her interested in biomass as an industry that could make a difference.

“People come in, they’re about to lose their home because they can’t afford their heating costs. But they managed to scrape together enough to buy a boiler and they make a return on their investment in the first year,” she said.

Payment plans are available, she added.

The South Shore Community Action Council (SSCAC) runs the fuel assistance program which covers Dukes County; the program has seen a 7.6 per cent rise in numbers from 2007 to 2008 compared to a statewide rise of 2.2 per cent.

Qualification for the program is worked out based on household numbers and income. Program fuel director Lisa Spencer said that for example, a one-person household with annual income of under $20,200 qualifies for the program.

She said more than 40 per cent of participants are senior citizens.

But the trend may be changing; Roger Wey, chairman of the Oak Bluffs council on aging, said he has been giving out applications to a lot of young and single parents.

“The applications started coming in a couple of months ago which is highly unusual,” he said.

The fuel assistance program starts in November; applications will be received until April. Applications are available for all seniors at any Island council on aging office; only the Oak Bluffs council handles applications for people who are not seniors. The program has a Web site: SSAC.org.

Mr. Wey also said the Salvation Army and the Joseph Kennedy Citizen Energy Heat Program both offer forms of fuel assistance.

Island electricity provider Nstar is prohibited by the state from cutting power to those who are unable to pay their bills between November 15 and March 15. According Ms. Spencer the department of public utilities expects to negotiate to extend this moratorium into April.