As the national economy continues to sputter dangerously, the outlook for the Vineyard remains uncertain, especially when it comes to the main economic engines of construction and real estate, which by most accounts have fallen off dramatically in recent weeks.

And while there are few statistical measures, the anecdotes suggest that what was already going to be a long, hard winter is likely to be even harder now that problems have spread into the financial markets and wider economy.

But even beyond the problems of the near future, the Vineyard faces long-term structural economic problems which began well before the current crisis, and are likely to persist after it is over.

Left unaddressed, said John J. Ryan, who earlier this year completed the most detailed report ever done on the Vineyard economy, the risk of the future is that the inequalities of wealth and income here will only grow.

“I hate to put it this way,” he said yesterday, “but it means in the future you will either have servants, or you will be one.”

In the shorter term the structural and cyclical problems threaten to interact in a way which could make the economic times harder here than in many other places.

The building industry presents the most striking example. As the real estate market slows, so does construction. But while construction accounts for only about five per cent of total wages in Massachusetts as a whole, it accounts for 13 per cent here. Construction accounts for about seven per cent of total sales in the state, but 32 per cent here.

Even before the dramatic financial events of recent weeks, the effects of the real estate crisis were apparent on Island. And that affects construction.

May is usually one of the busiest months for the zoning board of appeals in Oak Bluffs, as people prepare to start construction work in the fall. This year, though, said zoning administrator Adam Wilson, the zoning board of appeals considered not one application.

Ernest Mendenhall, the West Tisbury building inspector, yesterday provided figures showing construction activity is well down this year, compared with last — which was itself a slow one.

So far in 2008, 96 permits for construction of all types — new houses, additions, sheds — have been issued, with a total estimated cost of $13.5 million. In the same period last year, there were 119 permits, worth $22 million.

They are evidence of the short-term economic problem. Less obvious is the structural problem; Mr. Ryan said patterns of building on the Island had changed well before the latest slowdown.

“New construction had declined quite rapidly, but construction overall was not down,” he said.

The shift was toward additions and alterations, rather than new places.

One obvious reason for this is that the Island’s population growth has slowed dramatically.

Over 30 years, starting about 1970, the Vineyard boomed. The year-round population grew by about 4.6 per cent per year in the 1970s. It slowed to a little over three per cent in the 1980s and a little under three per cent in the 1990s. Since the turn of the century, however, annual growth has been just 0.6 per cent.

“The era of high economic growth rates is over.

“ . . . The next 20 years will likely be marked by much slower job and housing growth,” Mr. Ryan wrote in his report, prepared for the Martha’s Vineyard Commission.

The report details more problems with the Island economy.

The proportion of older people is growing much faster here than elsewhere in the state. By 2020, more than 22 per cent of residents will be 65 or older, and will be the fastest-growing demographic group. The largest growth in personal expenditures over the next 20 years, the report says, will be for health care and the associated costs of aging.

And the Island working age population is declining. There are far fewer households with children.

In 1990, the average wage paid for all jobs in Dukes County was just 70 per cent of the average for the state; in 2006, it stood at 73 per cent. Over the same period, though, median house prices here rose about 350 per cent, from slightly above the state median to more than twice the median.

Seasonal homeowners now account for 70 per cent of the spending on construction. For a long time, many of these people were considered so wealthy as to be effectively recession-proof. But now that too may change.

The core problem lies in the fact that so much of the Island economy is seasonal and geared to serving the needs of visitors, the Ryan report found. And the report found scant evidence that the economy was evolving to become more year-round. Winter wages accounted for 19 per cent of annual wages in 1990 and just 20 per cent in 2006.

Retail jobs on the Island account for 14 per cent of total wages, compared with six per cent for the state as a whole. Accommodation and food services account for 12 per cent, compared with three per cent in the state. Of these, only construction pays well — an average of around $1,000 a week, compared with $627 for the average retail job and just $512 for accommodation/food services.

Conversely, professional and business services on the Island amount to nine per cent of the economy, compared with 20 per cent statewide. That sector pays an average $900 a week.

“So, the structural challenge is clear,” said Mr. Ryan yesterday. “The Island has got to address the problem of how to make a livable wage in a place where it is becoming significantly more expensive to live.

“It will get harder so long as the Vineyard is economically tied to maintaining the property values and providing services to folks with second or retirement homes.

“I’m not suggesting the Island can change to become a new Silicon Valley. But there is a need to find a way to export intellectual, technical and non-physical products, because those are the kinds of jobs that will pay enough to enable people to live there,” he said.

And falling prices may not help Island residents get back into the housing market.

“I know some Island people might see an opportunity in a serious recession, with a high foreclosure rate, but I don’t,” Mr. Ryan said.

“Indeed, when I look at the [house] buying patterns of Island folks, they were buying more at higher rates when the economy was up.”

He concluded: “The fact remains that there is a basic structural problem here: it’s a very expensive place to live and wages are low.

“Whether a home is worth $1 million, or $500,000 or $300,000, does not address that problem.

“As far as I can see the conclusions of my report hold true, no matter what the economic times are for the future.”