Hurricane Watch

Will Irene, lumbering up the coast earlier this week, lose her gumption and shrink from landfall as Earl did last Labor day weekend? Or will she gain momentum and pack a wallop the way Bob did two decades ago? As we go to press, the first hurricane to threaten New England this season seemed likely to spare the Vineyard a major disaster. But despite big advances in hurricane tracking over the past 20 years, weather patterns remain just capricious enough to keep the skeptics among us skeptical and the planners preparing for the worst.

Storms are part of the fabric of New England life, and in the way that every cloud has a silver lining, birders and fishermen, surfers and kite flyers, are cheering the winds and waves that presage a burst of bad weather. Saturday is setting up to be a perfect day for the Martha’s Vineyard Wind Festival at Ocean and Waban Parks in Oak Bluffs, if the rain holds off.

But let us not forget the power and unpredictability of Mother Nature.

We’d like to believe the lessons Hurricane Katrina taught the country six years ago were already learned here on the Island in 1938, 1944, 1954 and most recently in 1991. Those who were here during Hurricane Bob remember an August afternoon that turned dark early, an eerie evening of whipping winds but little rain, a morning-after devastation of uprooted trees, blocked roads, capsized and wind-tossed boats, and a long week without power for much of the Island. That there was only one death associated with Bob should not diminish the lasting effects of its fury.

This week, there were ample signs of Islanders taking the threat of a hurricane seriously. Edgartown Marine was busy hauling boats out of the harbor, customers were buying up bottled water and batteries at local grocery stores and the Steamship Authority had added extra ferries, anticipating the cancellation of boat line service if the hurricane hits. The storm makes seas dangerous.

But memories can also be short, and some are already pointing to Earl’s fizzle as reason to shrug off this week’s warnings. Despite dire predictions, the principal damage done by Earl was the loss of retail revenue from tourists who stayed away for the end-of-summer holiday weekend. We sympathize with retailers who watch their business ebb each time a tropical storm forms offshore, and we credit the First Family for sticking with their vacation plans and staying put.

Whether it is Irene or another storm further down the alphabet, whether it is this year or next or the year after, however, we are surely due for another massive hurricane. Liz Durkee, conservation agent in Oak Bluffs, noted in a recent commentary in the Gazette (Facts of Weather Require Precaution, July 15, 2011) that rising sea levels, caused by human-induced climate change, increase the potential severity of all storms, including the northeasters that more commonly buffet our shores. Quoting the U.S. Global Research Program, she writes that the sea level rise in the Northeast “is projected to rise more than the global average . . . the densely populated coasts of the Northeast face substantial increases in the extent and frequency of storm surge, coastal flooding, erosion, property damage, and loss of wetlands.”

Each threat should be taken seriously. Stock up on water, nonperishable food, candles and matches, flashlights and batteries. Renew your prescriptions and check your first aid supplies. Fill the tank of your car with gas, charge your cell phone and computer. Keep the yard picked up — loose clay pots, lightweight summer furniture and children’s toys can become dangerous flying missiles in high winds. And if you own a boat, remember to stay in touch with your harbor master and be responsible about securing it in a storm. Boats adrift are not only at risk for loss, but they can pose extreme hazards to others at sea. If you live on or near the water, have a plan for seeking higher ground. Shelters will be open in every Island town in the event that the storm does hit and the Gazette will carry information on its Web site.

FEMA and the National Hurricane Center Web sites both provide good hurricane preparedness information.

This may be just another dry run, but one of these days the preparations will matter.