In these quiet off-season months I have had an opportunity to examine the dangers inherent in the rampant building of trophy homes on Martha’s Vineyard. Every morning the ferries in Vineyard Haven spew out numberless 18-wheelers laden to the max with boulders, lumber and other building supplies. The ground quivers under their wake. The colossal weight of these homes creates points of pressure like human/housing fracking on the inner cores of the Island allowing ethers to escape and in general disturbing the layers of natural habitat. This reaction may explain the preponderance and proliferation of sinkholes and potholes (a distant relative) on the Island. This building policy may also explain why the Island is sinking. This and the fact that the seas are rising does not bode well for the Vineyard.

It will be noticed first at the perimeters of the Island, State Beach being one of the first to go under. Then surrounding areas will become damp and sponge-like. Next a network of bogs sans cranberries will form. But residents do not panic, this will take place over a period of years until most of the Island is under about three feet of water leaving about 200 square yards of dry land on what I image will then be called High Head.

I was about to submit this observation to the scientific periodicals which feed on this type of erudition when I remembered the quivering I felt at the unloading of the 18-wheelers and proceeded to explore my observation. Donning my diving suit and tank, I dove under what I perceived to be the outer lip of the Island. Much to my surprise I discovered that the Island is shaped like a top and unfortunately the tip which is at the bottom is eroding and is soon to break away.

This of course means that the Vineyard will not sink but simply float away. The main body of the Island will be retained briefly by the many cables that connect us to the mainland. But after a few snaps, crackles and pops, the Island will bob away in the general direction of Ireland, meeting I hope a few icebergs for important freshwater hookups along the way.

Unfortunately, the Vineyard, because of the mass of fresh water coming south from the Arctic over the salty sea, will not allow for a possible rendezvous in Kinsale, the gourmet capital of Ireland. Instead it will travel in a parabola (like the line the roller coaster forms on that first hill) forcing it instead toward France then down past Portugal and into the Mediterranean and possibly to Gibraltar — in time for steak and kidney pie and a pint of bitter or Casablanca for lamb and couscous and tea.

Chappy will not be so fortunate. Although it composes some 4.1 square land miles there is nothing square about her. She is shaped more like a boomerang and will spin like one but unfortunately in a downward direction. My calculations indicate that it will probably not make it pass Monomoy Island, home of countless harbor and gray seals and the Great White. But Chappaquiddickers, don’t panic. No need at night to tie a line from your big toe to an inflatable. If my predictions are correct none of these events will come to pass before 2043.

John Crelan lives on high ground in Vineyard Haven.