On Sept. 1, the United Nations Environment Program released a highly significant report titled Limiting Overshoot — Navigating Exceedance of 1.5 °C and Pathways to Return. Amidst the chaos surrounding the ongoing and unprecedented attack on our republic, it will probably not garner nearly as much attention as it deserves.
The 141-page document calls for a significant change in the world’s approach to dealing with the reality of the climate crisis. While dense and detailed, the key messages are twofold. First, the long-held 1.5 °C temperature rise limit to avoid serious and unrecoverable damage is now certain to be exceeded in this decade. Second, in addition to seriously increased efforts to dramatically lower global greenhouse gas emissions we must also deploy technology to remove excess gases. Which, by the way, we do not yet know how to do at scale. To those who have been paying attention, this is truly sobering — but not surprising.
From a global perspective, the summer of 2026 has featured numerous signals that climate change is accelerating. In August a new worldwide average sea surface temperature record was set (21.1 °C outside polar regions). Both Arctic and Antarctic ice extents continue to decline; sea level has risen by four inches over the last three decades.
This summer Europe has suffered five separate excess heat emergencies, causing an estimated 30,000 deaths. (Much less important but noteworthy, the French champagne grape harvest was forced to be one month earlier than normal, which is unprecedented).
Also in August, Nepal and Tibet were subject to devastating flash floods resulting from a glacier collapse with approximately 1,000 deaths at this writing. As a Nepalese official noted, “We contribute a negligible share of global emissions (approximately 0.1 per cent), yet we sit downstream of some of the fastest-warming glacial systems on Earth.”
And it should be noted that annual global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, not decrease, at a significant pace. In 2000, emissions were 35.8 billion metric tons, while in 2025 emissions rose to 53.2 billion metric tons.
What about our country? July was the hottest month on record across the U.S., per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, eclipsing the previous record holder (the Dust Bowl summer of 1936). More than 40,000 forest fires ravaged the West so far this year, burning more than 4.5 million acres, well above previous averages. Water availability in the Southwest is at a critical stage; Lake Mead, the water source for many millions of people and the nation’s largest reservoir, is at its lowest level ever.
And through it all, the federal government is doing everything it can to stall climate programs and the energy transformation efforts needed to address the accelerating climate crisis. While solar and wind energy are now markedly less expensive than burning fossil fuels, major projects have been canceled and roadblocks to progress have been erected. The U.S. is now well behind Europe and China in adopting renewable energy systems and electric vehicles. One of the side effects of our ongoing war with Iran is the realization by many nations that fossil fuels are not reliable sources of energy and are moving quickly to renewables. The rest of the world has picked up the slack and the U.S. has been left in the dust.
Geographical, a well-respected UK journal, recently published a list of the world’s five fastest warming regions. The Arctic is number one, the Antarctic number two. Europe is number three. It may come as a surprise, but number four is New England. Recent research has shown that New England’s average temperature has risen by 2.5 °C since 1990, significantly higher than the global average of 1.3 °C . Much as we may wish otherwise, our Island home is squarely in the initial impact zone of the climate crisis.
In 2017, the leaders of our energy committees, the MVC Climate Action Task Force, and Vineyard Power came together to establish an all-Island group as a coordinated response to the accelerating climate crisis. Through joint projects and sharing of best practices in furthering energy sustainability and resilience for our threatened Island home, this group has continued to work towards achieving the aspirational goals that all six towns on the Island have formally adopted.
So how are we doing?
In 2018, we developed a model, updated annually, to understand progress toward our goals. The model includes a number of key factors, including overall electricity use, solar energy production, fossil fuel use, heat pump installations, Island-registered electric vehicles, and greenhouse gas emissions.
Our overall electricity consumption in 2018 was ~ 217 GWh (billions of watt hours); by 2025 it had risen to 227 (which is consistent with our electrification efforts).
However, our on-Island solar production rose from 6.9 GWh to 25.3 GWh, so that the total electricity supplied by Eversource fell from 204 GWh to 190 GWh. From 2018 through 2025, over 2,500 heat pumps (both whole-house and partial-house) were installed on the Island through the Mass Save program, administered by the Cape Light Compact and supported by Vineyard Power as a Mass Save Community First Partner. In 2020, there were 173 electric vehicles registered in Dukes County. By 2025, that number increased to 818 — a nearly five-fold growth.
The bottom line for our impact on climate change, though, is our greenhouse gas emissions. Our model uses CO2 emissions as a measure. In 2018, our CO2 emissions were approximately 195,000 metric tons; this was reduced to 173,000 metric tons in 2025. Accounting for our increases in population, Martha’s Vineyard resident’s per-capita emissions (including fossil fuel use by visitors) declined from 14.9 metric tons per person in 2018 to 11.4 tons in 2025, a 23 per cent reduction.
To place these figures in perspective, the U.S. per capita CO2 emissions in 2025 were approximately 14 tons, while China’s were about 9.4 tons and India’s about 2.2 tons.
In sum up, the Island community has made significant strides in addressing climate change. The 1.5 °C global warming barrier is certain to be breached. While we are not on a trajectory to meet our aspirational goals, we can still meet them if we redouble our efforts.
It is certain that our grandchildren will be living through perilous times. It didn’t have to be that way. The world made a choice to follow the easy path, rather than the road not taken.
That’s the inconvenient truth.
Rob Hannemann lives in Chilmark.
This article appears in October 2 2026.