There are many sources for weather predictions. Some are good at snowfall amounts while others specialize in wind speed and direction. None are proficient at all aspects of the weather so I use them individually for what they have the best record of predicting. My favorite for wind is called Windfinder. So far, they have not demanded a subscription as the other prediction sites have after I log on a dozen times.
Windfinder predicts that the snow storm coming this Sunday will have a north-east component as the system approaches. That’s the direction that affects the Chappy Ferry the most negatively. A breeze of even thirty knots makes entering the Chappy slip a challenge, especially if the propellers are becoming clogged with seaweed. Add the extra strong currents caused by the breach into the factors and there may need to be an interruption in ferry service to wait for either the wind or the current to subside.
Such will be the conditions this coming Sunday. Most likely the snowfall will accompany the high winds. This tends to give a visual warning to those not watching the forecast closely and makes it less likely that they will head to town on a lark once the snow flies.
Flooding of the approaches to the ferry ramps is reduced when there is a sizable breach. The current opening seems to be well established. The weekly storm pattern that we are experiencing serves to keep it flushed out and flowing. But Mother Nature is full of surprises, so be prepared to slosh through half a foot of ice cold seawater if going across on foot.
The most recent storm came through with the wind speed, wind direction and snow depth very close to the predictions. I’m writing this Wednesday morning. The nor’easter is still over half a week away. That’s a lot of time for a weather system to change. It’s worth noting that the prediction for this coming storm is that it will worsen as it passes over the Islands. We always prepare for the worst and hope for the best. As long time and long ago ferry Capt. Nelson Smith used to say when asked if the ferry would keep running, “If you really want to sleep on Chappy tonight, I suggest that you stay on Chappy today.”
Those of you who knew Captain Nelson know that I have thoroughly edited that quote. He would have said it with half as many words.
This article appears in January 30, 2026.