Former Ambassador Says Iraq Pullout Is Inevitable
By MIKE SECCOMBE
You don't fix a watch with a hammer. And the force of blunt
instruments is seldom any more effective in international relations.
That was the essence of Ambassador Dennis Ross's address at
the Martha's Vineyard Summer Institute Wednesday night, as he
drove home his message that America's diminished standing in the
world would not be restored until it abandons its heavy-handed and
faith-based approach to international problems and relearns the subtle
art of statecraft.
SRC="http://www.mvgazette.com/news/2007/08/17/content/dennis_ross_sm.jpg" As an indictment of the international policies of the current
American administration, it was a damning presentation, although not
politically partisan. After all, Mr. Ross applied his diplomatic skills
to international relations under previous governments, both Democrat
(Carter and Clinton) and Republican (Reagan and George Bush senior).
But the younger President Bush and his administration, Ambassador
Ross suggested, have made a mess of just about every international
problem they faced, by consistently failing to observe the twin rules of
statecraft - defining credible and achievable objectives and using
appropriate and varied means to achieve them.
"When you marry your objectives and means, you are credible
and when you don't - you see what happens," he said.
He cited examples, principally related to Iraq and Iran, but also to
Israel, Palestine and the Middle East in general, with asides into
Russia, Venezuela, China and elsewhere. Everywhere he found failure.
In Iraq, he said, what he called the "faith-based,
never-let-the-facts-get-in-the-way approach" had begun with
unrealistic objectives, compounded by inadequate means.
"The administration assumed that once Saddam fell, everything
else would fall into place and not fall apart," he said. "We
not only hoped for the best, we planned for the best. Normally, if
you're going to go to war, you hope for the best, but you plan for
the worst."
America was lucky there were no weapons of mass destruction, he
said. If there had been, U.S. forces would have been unable to take
control of all the suspected sites, let alone preventing the weapons
from being smuggled out of the country.
And the current troop surge would inevitably fail because its
objective was ill-considered, he said.
A U.S. withdrawal is inevitable, he said, and the only real hope now
is not victory, but containment of the conflict. He said Jihadists
hardened by the Iraq conflict we are fueling others, as in Lebanon.
"We can't stay in the midst of a civil war, a sectarian
war," he said, adding that containment will require a diplomatic
strategy involving all the neighbors - Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Kuwait, Syria and Turkey.
He also said what is needed is a three-pronged diplomatic approach
beginning with a firm timetable for withdrawal - but one
negotiated with Iraq rather than imposed by America - and followed
by a national reconciliation conference within Iraq, which would not
disband until agreement had been reached. Third, he said, a regional
conference must be called with an ongoing working group which draws in
all the regional stakeholders.
He stressed the need to bring in other parties, too, if Iran is to
be persuaded not to pursue a nuclear weapons program.
As the situation stands now, along with other energy powers like
Russia and Venezuela had gained a huge windfall from rising oil prices,
the U.S. is engaged in what he called slo-mo diplomacy, and European
governments continue to provide $18 billion a year in credit guarantees
to their companies doing business in Iran.
Sanctions do not really strike at the country's economy, he
said. He also said he believes the Iranians could be persuaded to stop
their nuclear program, but not by the United States alone.
In part, that means forming a common approach with Saudi Arabia
- which has its own problems with its 20 per cent minority Shia
Muslim population - to threaten to cut off its investment in
Europe and other nations including China, that deal with Iran.
It means getting Israel to tell European nations that their
continued investment increases the risk of a pre-emptive Israeli strike
against Iran. And it means America must come to the negotiating table
with the Iranians on condition that Europe "cut the economic
lifeline," he said, adding:
"We're going to find in many cases around the world that
we have an objective but we don't have the means on our own, which
means we have to mobilize others.
"We have to frame issues in a way that will appeal to them . .
. have to use your leverage in a way that will move them.
The Israeli/Palestinian problem, for example, he said, would benefit
from economic assistance to the more moderate Palestinian faction. Why
not lean on Saudi Arabia - awash in oil money but reluctant to
contribute - to do more, and to publicly embarrass them about
their parsimony if they do not?
Above all, though, the ambassador stressed that regaining standing
in the world means understanding the motivations and needs of other
players.
"We actually have to listen," he said. "We are
great at talking at . . . but not at listening."
He said he doubts the current administration is capable of change,
but hopes through his speeches and his new book Statecraft and How to
Restore America's Standing in the World, to encourage the
contenders for the next Presidency to be questioned about their
understanding of the subject.
The final Summer Institute presentation scheduled for next Wednesday
will not take place. The featured speaker, Newark Mayor Cory Booker,
canceled to attend instead to gang violence problems in his own city.
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