Every year the children of the West Tisbury School put together Thanksgiving baskets for Martha’s Vineyard Community Services to distribute to families in need. Forty of them, turkeys with all the trimmings.

Last year that was enough, said Community Services development assistant Sterling Bishop on Monday. “But when they came in today, we had 60 people who needed them.”

Just another sign of economic hard times, he said, which have pushed up demand for all the services his organization offers.

Look around and the signs are everywhere, even if some folks on the Island refuse to see them. Some are anecdotal, some are statistical, but they are legion.

The Martha’s Vineyard Land Bank numbers are one example. From July 1 to Nov. 21 this year, land bank revenues, which come from a two per cent levy on most Island real estate transactions, were just over $2.8 million. For the same period last year, the number was some $4.8 million.

And 2007 was no banner year. Between the same dates in 2005, before the real estate market began to tank, the land bank took in more than $6.3 million.

That is a drop of 55 per cent.

It has been almost two decades since things dropped off so dramatically, said land bank executive director James Lengyel this week.

“Between fiscal year ‘87 and ‘88, revenues dropped 21 per cent. The next year they dropped 28 per cent. The next year 16, the next year 19,” he said.

“We’re looking at a comparable situation now.”

At least as significant as the dollar amounts is the volume of transactions from which the money comes.

That is down 20 per cent — a fact which seems to indicate that even the top end of the market, the segment long thought to be largely recession-proof, is off too.

In 2005, the land bank received an average $9,900, from each transaction; most figures show it has fallen to about $5, 500. So sale prices are on average much smaller.

And that is a worry. “It’s not just the revenue change that matters,” said Mr. Lengyel “The transaction numbers are very important, and a 20 per cent change says something.”

What it says is trouble.

In the vast majority of years, even if the revenue numbers bounce around a bit — it only takes a couple of big sales to make a sizeable difference — volumes tend to stay pretty stable, varying up or down by an average of maybe five or six per cent.

The collapse in revenues has shot the bank’s estimates for the year to pieces. They were expecting a fall of about 14 or 15 per cent, the same as in the previous year.

“The land bank commission has always assumed what we saw back in 1990 was sui generis, and we would not see it again,” said Mr. Lengyel.

“But — here we go again.”

Just a few months ago, the Island looked as if it was on the cusp of a recovery from the national housing slump caused by the subprime mortgage crisis.

Then the second-round economic effects of the crisis hit — when money markets froze up, the financial sector had to be bailed out and large numbers of jobs began disappearing — and things looked bad again.

One Island builder said he had a big project lined up until about a month ago. Then it fell through; the customer worked for one of the big Wall Street investment banks.

There are many similar stories.

“But it’s not universal,” said John Early, a well-known contractor and owner of a construction company which handles a good deal of high-end work.

“If your work is not cancelled, you are in pretty good shape. The high end is still reasonably active. This is not your average local economy here. Conditions are rather extreme,” he said, adding:

“And these people of high net worth might have lost a lot, but they are still worth a lot.”

Nonetheless, Mr. Early said he had been forced to lay off a couple of staff. The remaining 25 people are still working, but doing less, he said.

“I’m just trying to keep my crew busy, grinding it out, being really busy staying busy,” Mr. Early said.

The construction and real estate sectors of the Island economy have been slowing for the past couple of years. But until recently, retail — the largest employment sector on the Island, had seemed to be holding up.

Reports from the summer were good.

“But people tell me that in September the bottom fell out,” said Tisbury selectman Jeff Kristal recently. He later said October had been better, but there is other evidence to suggest things have slowed.

Chris Wells, the president and chief executive officer of the Martha’s Vineyard Savings Bank, sees it in bank deposits.

Mr. Wells said there is an annual rhythm to Island finances, which now is slowing. People put on financial fat in the summer and fall, then burn it over the winter and spring.

“But this year, they have not put as much on, and are burning that fat faster,” he said.

He is used to people falling behind in their payments on mortgages and other payments to the bank over the winter, which usually get made up during the summer season.

“But this year, people are paying more slowly. Where they might have been five days late, maybe now it’s 15,” Mr. Wells said. “I think maybe the summer was not as good as people say.”

The number of delinquent loans is no higher than usual yet, but the amounts are. Delinquencies are expected to rise in the first three months of the new year.

And the number of people coming in seeking to restructure their debt is up.

“I average about two counseling sessions each day now,” Mr. Wells said.

That is not necessarily a bad thing; he said some people are looking to take advantage of lower interest rates.

“The 60 per cent drop in the oil price will help, too,” he said. “Every $1 drop in the oil price, I believe, is like a billion dollars infused into the economy. Although the Vineyard is lagging behind the mainland, people’s disposable income will increase because of that. So there are some positive signs.”

As for the bank itself, well, it never got into subprime mortgages, never sold any loans to be sliced and diced and securitized. It will not be in line for any federal bailout money; it has not laid staff off. Indeed it is building a new place in West Tisbury, but that only serves as another indicator of the times.

“The last time we built something,” Mr. Wells said, “we had two serious bidders for the work.

“This time, we have nine, at last count.”

He said he has seen numerous examples of projects being cancelled, deferred and downsized.

Surveying the broader Island economy, Mr. Wells said: “I fear it’s going to get darker before it gets lighter here on the Vineyard.”

More statistical evidence of deterioration came this week in the form of unemployment numbers from the Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor. Unemployment is up sharply compared with the same time last year, from 2.5 to 3.4 per cent. The numbers are still very low compared with almost anywhere else in the country, but given the unusual nature of the Island workforce, some might question the relevance of them. Many people have multiple jobs, or unreported jobs.

Anecdotally, things are worse. A discussion was overheard in a coffee shop between a server and customer, both of whom had just been laid off. There are myriad stories about real estate brokers who have given up, and builders who are in a struggle to find jobs.

Before the Tisbury selectmen a couple of weeks back, Phil Hale, president of the Martha’s Vineyard Shipyard, said he had done an informal survey which found 22 fewer people were employed in the town this year than last.

He was arguing at the time for lower property taxes on business, and attributed the results to high taxes. Some might see the claimed job losses as being more due to the general economy than Tisbury tax rates, but not Mr. Hale.

Contacted this week, he was optimistic about the economy. And he had his own metric to base it on.

“Our measure of how the economy is going is how many boats we put in the water in spring and how many we take out in the fall. And we’re right on target,” he said.

“Like everybody I’m being very cautious — I have no grand plans to buy anything — but I believe we’ll be busy through the winter.

“People might do less on their boat, but it still will go in the water.”

He continued:

“I gather construction is down. But the banks are lending money, the banks are strong. I’ve seen no rash of foreclosures on the Island.

“I hear news out of the ski industry, that sales are actually up, which I think bodes well for the Vineyard for next summer. Maybe people won’t take the exotic trip to Africa or Alaska. Maybe they’ll go somewhere more local,” he said.

Maybe he’s right. Or maybe he’s in a truly recession-proof business.

But the boats-in-the water index seems to be about the only one not pointing downward right now.

And the Community Services turkeys-for-the-needy index looks like a core reliable measure.