Vineyard lobstermen face a drastic cut in what they are able to land, and that cut could come as early as next year. The focus on fast action follows new expert endorsements of a report describing a fishery on the verge of collapse and in need of closure.

It is unlikely to affect lobster consumers, as nearly all the lobsters sold on the Island, especially this time of year, come from Maine and Canada, which would be unaffected by the proposed cuts of up to 75 per cent or by any moratorium.

These proposals were first aired in summer, when top fisheries managers for the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s lobster technical committee reported the lobster stocks from south of Cape Cod all the way to the waters off Virginia are in dire trouble.

They recommended a five-year moratorium on the catching of lobsters but their proposal was met with doubt. Instead of initiating the moratorium, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission lobster board essentially asked for second opinions.

This fall three independent scientists with expertise in lobsters in other parts of the world were charged with reviewing the data. Two scientists from Australia and a third from England reviewed the work and agreed that dramatic steps were needed. “The projects that the [technical committee] has produced indicate that rebuilding will require a marked reduction in exploitation,” wrote N.G. Hall, of Australia.

In response, the Lobster Management Board, which operates under the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, at their Nov. 10 meeting asked the technical committee to come back with a plan for reducing lobster fishing effort by 50 per cent and look at lowering it even by 75 per cent. They aim for the plan to be completed by March and approved by summer.

Bill Adler, president of the Massachusetts Lobstermen’s Association and a commission member of the ASMFC, said he would oppose any measure that hurts fishermen: “I am adamantly opposed to anything that would put those fishermen out of business.”

But for more than a year the lobster board has been grappling with weighty reports of serious declines in landings from all ports from Cape Cod south.

Last June, Massachusetts fisheries biologist Robert Glenn reported the results of his findings, that rising water temperatures and intensive fishing was causing a crisis in the lobster fishery. The evidence was not only in science on the water, it was at the dock, where lobstermen were landing considerably less than they have in the past.

In 1999 Massachusetts lobstermen landed 15.8 million pounds of lobsters from the waters south of the Cape. That number has since dropped to 10.9 million.

The bigger blow was a report by Mr. Glenn that the number of juvenile lobsters was down significantly, raising the question of whether the fishery is already at a state of collapse. He reported there are no juvenile lobsters in Buzzards Bay.

Coincidentally, the only place where lobsters seem to be doing well is west of Noman’s Land and east of Block Island, where large-scale wind farms are being proposed.

Toni Kerns, a fisheries expert with the ASMFC assigned to oversee lobster management, said the board could be looking at the implementation of a quota, trap limits and even a possible seasonal closure. While the five-year moratorium is still an option, it is more likely that the board will find some gentler measure of reduction, one that doesn’t completely shut out the fishermen from the resource.

A seasonal closure would probably be in the summer, a time when the fisheries experts say that the lobsters are most stressed by warmer water temperatures. That is also the time when Menemsha lobstermen concentrate their fishing effort, because of both the kinder weather and the summer markets.

Dan McKiernan, a deputy director of the state Division of Marine Fisheries, said: “If we do nothing, we will continue to drive the stocks down to the point where it won’t recover, or it will be commercially extinct.”

The drop in lobster landings already has meant economic hardship for the Menemsha fishing fleet. All of the Island’s commercial lobstermen have taken up second jobs, often in plumbing and carpentry; in some cases those second jobs have become primary jobs to weather the difficulty lobstering.

Emmett Carroll, of Chilmark, a delegate to the Massachusetts Lobster Association, is one of the town’s most respected lobstermen. His travels on the water are well known and has earned the respect of many local commercial fishermen. Mr. Carroll said he has shifted his interest to raising cultured oysters, which he does well.

“I haven’t fished for lobsters in three years,” Mr. Carroll said this week. Why not? “The price is down. The bait, you can’t get. The price paid for lobsters has to be what it was 20 years ago.”

Mr. Adler said he has plenty of reasons to oppose a reduction in fishing effort. To him fishermen south of the Cape already face restrictions on what they can land, from increased carapace lengths to limits on traps they can use and other changes. He said the fisheries experts haven’t given the reduction measures the necessary time to take effect.

He is looking at other steps. Mr. Adler said there are talks underway already in Rhode Island with Congressional leaders about a possible buyout program, where fishermen can sell their business and get out of fishing altogether. This would bring down the fishing effort on the resource without impacting those who want to keep lobster fishing.

“Some of the fishermen are pretty good, not great, but they are doing it. A lot of them want out of the business,” Mr. Adler said. “This would pay the guy to go away.”

Mr. McKiernan said he is hearing at the state level that stocks are currently well below what they were in the 1970s when the lobster fishery was in trouble.

And while the lobstermen may be advocating that the fishery runs in varying cycles and will come back on its own, Mr. McKiernan points to the evidence that there are so few juveniles out there.

“Our goal is to try to achieve a sustainable fishery at a scale that the resource can provide,” Mr. McKiernan said.

The political process may force further delay. Mr. Adler, who sits on the commission, said change won’t come for another year because of the lengthy public hearing process.

Ms. Kerns said the lobster board could take quick action when they meet in the third week of March in Alexandria, Va. “If they write a new addendum it will go out to public process. They could fast-track it for the upcoming fishing season,” she said.