Following three straight months of little rain, Martha’s Vineyard remains under moderate to severe drought conditions along with most of the rest of the commonwealth.
In an assessment issued Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor, a collaboration of government and university meteorologists, classified drought conditions on the Island as moderate. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has classified the drought in southeastern Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard, as severe.
Either way, weather watchers, farmers, municipal water managers and firefighters agree that it’s dry as toast out there. A spokesman for the state Division of Fire Services confirmed this week that the fire tower off Indian Hill in West Tisbury is being manned due to high fire risk across the Island.
And if forceasters are correct, there is no immediate relief in sight.
This summer continues a three-year period of below-average precipitation. Rainfall statistics tell part of the story.
In June, less than half an inch of rain fell on the Island, more than three inches under the 30-year average.
In July, rainfall was slightly above average. But without a substantial storm in the next several days, August will finish about three inches below normal.
Meteorologists estimate it would take 9 to 12 inches of rain to return to normal conditions. Among those who study climate and weather, there is an old maxim about droughts.
“Many droughts end with a flood,” said Ed Capone, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers, speaking to the Gazette this week. “That’s pretty true in a lot of parts of the country. In 1985, a big drought ended with Hurricane Gloria. If you want to get out of a drought you need a big system like that,” he said, adding: “We don’t need a hurricane, but we need the rain. The rain is on the west side of a hurricane so if we get one going just east of the Cape, everybody will be happy.”
Island agriculture has been affected. At North Tabor Farm in Chilmark, livestock is usually munching fresh pasture grass at this time of the year, but those fields are brown or bare now because of the dry weather, farm co-owner Rebecca Miller said. Ms. Miller said she has been buying supplemental hay to feed the animals.
All her vegetable and flower crops have needed extra irrigation this summer, but that is not an added expense because North Tabor Farm uses its own well water. Her wells remain at normal levels. But cucumber, squash and flower crops fared poorly in the dry weather. “Yield is down because of it,” Ms. Miller said. “We sell a lot of cut flowers, and our yields are way down. I think it’s just a result of it not raining. Even though they’re on drip irrigation, it’s not the same.” The National Weather Service Climate Prediction center also uses computer models to monitor soil moisture levels.
“Soil moisture was much drier than normal across much of the area,” a drought information statement issued by the weather service said this week. “The crop moisture index issued by the Climate Prediction Center on August 6 indicated that most of southern New England is abnormally dry.”
On Monday evening, Oak Bluffs firefighters responded to a fast-moving fire in the dunes behind Joseph A. Sylvia State Beach. An ember from illegal fireworks sparked the fire. Dry conditions fueled it.
“It definitely helped that the night before we got some rain, but even with the little bit of rain we got, that fire was still fast moving,” said Oak Bluffs fire chief John Rose. “We’ve had a string of brush fires. About three weeks ago we had three brush fires in one day, small fires, nothing we couldn’t handle quickly. The drought is definitely in the back of everybody’s mind.”
Island fire departments have mutual aid plans in place. In the case of a large fire in Oak Bluffs, the West Tisbury fire department would respond with brush breaker trucks. In the event of a large forest fire, personnel from Cape Cod and a firefighting air tanker based in Canada would respond.
Drought conditions affect water usage on the Island, especially among homeowners trying to keep their lawns green.
In Edgartown, water department superintendent Bill Chapman said the town pumped significantly more water in June and July than it did last year, which was also considered a dry summer.
In June the water plant pumped 62.2 million gallons of water, a 12.7 per cent increase over June 2015. In July the town pumped 76.4 million gallons, 6.4 per cent more than the same month last year.
Unlike other parts of the state, water levels on the Cape and Islands remain normal, according to the National Weather Service.
Mr. Chapman concurred. “The condition of our wells, that’s at a normal level, even with the adding pumping,” he said. “We’re not pulling our aquifer down. There’s no shortage.”
But extra water usage results in higher costs to the town for more anti-corrosion chemicals to treat the water, and for operating large electric motors that power pumps. Water department customers also pay more, because bills are based in part on the amount of water used.
Fire danger at the Manuel Correllus State Forest has been elevated for many days this summer and is now high, according to Dave Selino, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Division of Fire Services. The danger level is set based on several factors, including the dryness of ground vegetation, temperature, relative humidity, as well as wind strength and direction.
“The drought conditions have been long term enough that it has affected some of the vegetation on the ground,” Mr. Selino said. “We’ve seen grasses that have been killed off, the shrub layer is starting to get affected, canopies are thinning out.
When the fire danger in the state forest is high or extreme, the Division of Fire Services dispatches a person to the Island fire tower in West Tisbury. From 68 feet above the ground, smoke can be spotted at the beginning of a fire, giving firefighters a better chance to get in front of it.
“We operate that tower when conditions warrant it,” Mr. Selino said. “Those are the days where we could get quicker growth on a fire. The fire tower helps us.”
Weather forecasters offer little hope for rain in the near future. According to forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center, drought conditions are expected to continue on the Island at least through November.
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