A northeaster headed towards the Vineyard from down the coast is expected to bring strong winds and waves this weekend, potentially disrupting ferry service and events.
The National Weather Service is predicting winds between 20 and 30 miles per hour and gusts up to 50 miles per hour starting Friday, making seas treacherous through the weekend.
“It’s not just the nor’easter, but the combination with a really strong high pressure system that’s sitting to our north over eastern Quebec,” said Peter Neilley, Chilmark resident and head of forecasting for The Weather Company. “It’s the combination of these two things that is leading to the circumstances we expect to find ourselves in for the coming days.”
Strong winds started early in the week and will pick up through the weekend. The weather service enacted a high wind watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening.
Mr. Neilley said there could also be three to four inches of rain.
“The winds probably are the headline here,” he shared. “Typically, winds of the strength that we expect in this storm wouldn’t be enough to cause widespread power outages on the Island. However, the trees are still fully in foliage, and that can lead to more likely power outages because the leaves grab the wind more, making the effect of the wind on the trees larger.”
The weather service issued a coastal flood watch, but Mr. Neilley doesn’t believe it would be a major piece of the storm.
“It looks like [the rain] will get spread out over a fairly long period of time. So the risk of really major flooding is somewhat diminished,” he said.
As of Wednesday, most ferry trips in and out of Oak Bluffs had been diverted to Vineyard Haven, setting an uncertain precedent for the weekend ahead.
“For the ferries, what matters is the wind speeds over the Vineyard Sound along the route between Woods Hole and Vineyard Haven,” Mr. Neilley said. “It’s typically right around 30 knots that the critical decisions to operate occur, and that’s where we’re expecting the peak winds to be a good portion of the period between Friday and Sunday.”
The Steamship Authority posted a travel advisory to its website for the Woods Hole-Martha’s Vineyard and Hyannis-Nantucket routes beginning Tuesday due to gusty winds forecast for the entire week. The company is waiving change and cancellation fees for travel scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
The Island Queen canceled all service from Wednesday through Saturday, and Seastreak called off the New Bedford trips on Wednesday and Thursday.
Aside from ferry operations, Mr. Neilley shared concerns about outdoor activities and events planned for the weekend.
“Most marine operations should, at minimum, be very cautious about the weather in the coming days,” he said. “I’m particularly thinking of the Derby fishermen who might very well be thinking about plans to go out fishing on their boats in the coming days. That’s going to be really tough and probably not recommended.”
The weather also has the potential to complicate events on the Islands, such as the many weddings scheduled for September.
“This time of year, there tend to be a lot of weddings on the island, and people typically start arriving for the weddings on Thursday and Friday,” Mr. Neilley said. “Hopefully, there are plans in place, not only of how to conduct the weddings and alternatives to move indoors, but also getting guests to and from the island.”
Jim Eddy, owner of Big Sky Tent & Party Rentals, said all events using his tents will be moving forward as of Wednesday.
“We haven’t had anybody cancel,” he said. “The bigger problem is the boats, with people getting their guests over. Their guest counts might not be what they thought.”
Mr. Eddy said the business is prepared to set up their events securely.
“We are doing the best we can to set our tents up and secure them as safely as possible,” he said. “Some people might change their plans and choose to go to an indoor venue, but all our events are moving forward.”
While some still prepare for weekend events, Mr. Neilley cautions that the storm should still be taken seriously.
“It’s not the end of the world kind of storm,” Mr. Neilley said. “It’s not by far anything close to the worst this island has ever seen. But it will have impacts, and we just should all be aware and be prepared for those impacts.”
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