Martha’s Vineyard’s homeless shelter program — which was long in the making and finally got off the ground just five years ago — is now at risk for staying shuttered this winter due to the complications of the pandemic, posing new dangers for the Island’s most vulnerable population.

Shelter organizers are working with the Martha’s Vineyard Hospital to keep both daytime and overnight warming shelters open this year. But all said there are no guarantees.

“It’s going to be an acute problem very soon. The days are not getting warmer. And we have a group of people who have nowhere to go,” hospital president and chief executive officer Denise Schepici said.

Last winter, when the pandemic arrived in full force by mid-March, Houses of Grace — the Island’s only homeless shelter program — had to close about three weeks early due to serious safety, health and space concerns.

Based on past experience, the consequences of not having a winter shelter are dire.

“We had five residents die . . . found in the woods, because there was no place for these individuals to go,” Ms. Schepici said during a press briefing Wednesday. “That spun my head around. These were folks that weren’t admitted to our emergency room and didn’t have anywhere to seek shelter.”

Karen Tewhey, who formerly ran the county homelessness prevention program, explained later that the individuals died outside during the winter of 2016-2017, when the shelter program was just starting.

Ms. Schepici said the individuals were suffering with symptoms of hypothermia, as well as other conditions.

“I was just shocked, and really, really saddened,” Ms. Schepici said upon hearing about the deaths of homeless residents. “We certainly hope to avoid that this year.”

To that end, the hospital has offered to help with funding and protective equipment to help keep daytime and overnight warming shelters open this winter for homeless people on the Island.

But with the pandemic still raging in many parts of the country and severe health restrictions still in place throughout the commonwealth and Island, the situation for the shelter program this year has become more complicated.

Speaking to the Gazette by phone, Ms. Tewhey, who now runs Harbor Homes of Martha’s Vineyard, said it seems very unlikely that the shelter will be able to reopen this season.

The Rev. Chip Seadale, rector at St. Andrew’s church in Edgartown who serves as de-facto head of the program, concurred, saying that it would be difficult to find a suitable space to house homeless individuals overnight considering the risks with Covid-19. Church dioceses have changed their authorization rules for overnight occupancy programs, rendering most religious spaces — traditionally used as overnight shelters — unworkable. Other suitable spaces for the program, such as fire stations or other community buildings, present their own challenges, Reverend Seadale said.

“In my mind, unless we can find a large enough space that can handle the aerosol load for an overnight of about 15 people or less — we averaged about 10 or so last year, plus two staff members per night — we’re kind of dead in the water,” he said.

He said the likelihood of finding such a space was small.

“My odds are really low,” Reverend Seadale said. “Big spaces on the Island are hard . . . especially heated ones.”

On top of that, issues of staffing — including the fact that many of the shelter’s elderly volunteers are already at high risk for the virus — as well as other lodging and health restrictions at both the state and local level have further put the shelter program in jeopardy.

Ms. Tewhey and Reverend Seadale also both said the daytime warming centers on the Island, run in previous years by Rebecca Jamieson, would likely not be able to open this year either.

There are approximately 120 critically homeless individuals on the Island, according to Ms. Tewhey. About two dozen of those individuals are regularly serviced by the Houses of Grace shelter program, with shelter occupancy hovering around eight to 10 guests on any given night.

Reverend Seadale said the number of individuals who spend the night elsewhere is even more striking.

“There’s a whole sub-demographic that comes out to use these facilities that really are on the tip of the iceberg for a larger demographic that sleep in the woods, sleep in cars, sleep in sheds,” he said. “And that’s a little scary, especially for a place like Martha’s Vineyard.”

Once a largely informal patchwork of religious and municipal advocacy groups, the Island’s homelessness prevention network has made strides in recent years to formalize its shelter program, which began Houses of Grace five years ago. The shelter normally runs from Jan. 1 through March 31, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., providing daily warm beds, dinners and breakfast to people who are homeless or housing insecure.

The Federated Church in Edgartown, the Good Shepherd Parish in Oak Bluffs and St. Andrew’s parish house in Edgartown all rotate shelter nights, with four of the nights coming at St. Andrew’s. The churches are staffed with four volunteers per night; two leave around 9 p.m., and two more stay through the night.

Although no final decisions on the shelter and warming center programs have been made, Ms. Tewhey gave a presentation at a recent meeting of the Dukes County health council describing the challenges if neither space can open this winter. In an interview this week, she reiterated those concerns.

Without a winter shelter, individuals who are living outside in the cold will go to the emergency room at the hospital, Ms. Tewhey said, and there won’t be an identified place for the hospital to release them. She said misdemeanor crimes would likely increase, with people who are homeless seeking shelter in jails where there is a warm cot. And there will be more individuals — many of whom struggle with substance abuse or mental health issues — camping deep in the state forest and lighting fires, she said.

“There is concern about that. It is like a tinderbox out there,” Ms. Tewhey said, referring to the ongoing drought on the Island and concerns about wildfires.

Ms. Tewhey confirmed that Houses of Grace is the only homeless shelter program on the Island. The closest mainland overnight winter shelter is in Hyannis, which is often filled to capacity. A shelter in Wareham nearly closed because demand had risen so precipitously after the pandemic began.

Despite all the challenges, efforts are still being made to salvage the program.

At the press briefing Wednesday, Ms. Schepici said the hospital was in conversations with homelessness advocates to ensure shelters could open this winter, even if they opened in a changed capacity. She said the hospital would be willing to provide protective equipment for volunteers — as well as service a grant that could help Houses of Grace hire staff.

“We are having some very early discussions to see what we can do to elicit support and get these things reactivated,” Ms. Schepici said.

When the shelter closed last winter, Ms. Tewhey received an approximately $30,000 grant to house individuals in hotels. But because of rules about health, safety and drug use, recipients were restricted to a very small subset of the homeless population.

Reverend Seadale said the program could conceivably operate with the hospital’s help. But everything hinges on finding a space.

“Where are the people who freeze to death in the winter, where are they going to go?” he asked.